Developing World Investment to Rise
2013-05-17 14:16:08

The developing world is poised to become a major player in global investment.(1)

The World Bank says in fewer than 20 years half the global stock of capital will be in developing countries. That compares to about one-third today.(2)
世界银行说少于 20 年资本的一半全球股票将在发展中国家。今天的相比了大约三分之一。

The bank has released the latest edition of its Global Development Horizons report.(3)

The World Bank forecasts, by 2030, “developing countries’ share in global investment is projected to triple” to nearly 160-trillion dollars.(4)
世界银行预测,到 2030 年,"发展中国家所占份额在全球投资预计的三倍"到近 160 兆美元。

Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President Kaushik Basu said that “demographic changes will profoundly influence structural shifts.”(5)

“Population will increase from the current roughly seven billion to eight-point-five billion at the end of 2030. Some societies will be well advanced in the process of aging.(6)
"人口将从目前的增加大约 7 到 8 点五亿美元在结束了 2030年亿元。一些社会,将好的老化过程的先进。

The demographic bulge in different countries will progress at different paces.(7)

And the big question that should concern us all is what will happen to the major drivers of growth and development, namely savings and investment – and in particular, infrastructural investment.”(8)
而最大的问题,我们都应关心的是主要驱动力的增长和发展,即储蓄和投资 — — 并在特定的基建投资将会怎样的。

The report is being released during – what Basu called – troubling times. He said there is a “decoupling between the world of finance and the real economy.”(9)
该报告即被释放期间 — — 什么 Basu 叫 — — 令人焦虑的时代。他说有"脱钩世界金融和实体经济之间"。

“By most financial indicators we are doing better, distinctly better, actually, than a year ago.(10)

But if you look at the real economy, including the news that came from Europe, the recession is prolonging.(11)

Europe is probably into the longest stagnation since 1945. There is a trap lurking at every level of income for every country. Policymakers have to be aware of that,” he said.(12)
欧洲大概是入自 1945 年以来的最长的停滞。这里有陷阱潜伏在每一级的每个国家的收入。政策制定者必须意识到,"他说。

He admitted that long-term economic forecasting can be difficult. However, he said that the Global Development Horizons report reveals “a host of interesting trends.”(13)

“By 2030, we are also being told that China and India will be the largest investors in the world.(14)
"到 2030 年,我们还被告知中国和印度将是世界最大的投资者。

Developing countries will account for 47 to 60 percent of global capital flows in 2030. This is an amazing shift from the current roughly 23 percent,” he said.(15)
发展中国家将占到 2030 年全球资本流动的 47 到 60%。这是惊人转变从目前的约 23%,"他说。

That’s expected to continue until the late 2030s, when another region will rise.(16)
已预期将继续直到晚本世纪 30 年代,当另一个区域将会上升。

“At that stage,” he said, “the demographic dividend will be on the rise in sub-Saharan Africa.(17)

A lot of our global attention will no doubt turn to the great opportunities that will happen in sub-Saharan Africa.”(18)

The report paints a scenario of deeper financial market development there. It adds that foreign investors will become much more willing to invest in the region.(19)

Also, sub-Saharan Africa will have a much younger labor force than many other parts of the world.(20)

“By 2030, for every dollar that will be invested in the world 60 cents will be invested in developing countries. This is a dramatic change with respect to the past.(21)
"到 2030 年,将会投资在世界的每个美元 60 美分将投资在发展中国家。这是对过去发生了巨大变化。

For almost four decades, from the 60s to the 90s and 2000, the investments were only 20 cents to the dollar.(22)
近四年,从 60 年代到 90 年代和 2000 年,投资了只有 20 美分,至美元。

So this is a major change,” said Maurizio Bussolo, lead author of the World Bank report.(23)
所以这是一个重大的变化,"说毛里齐奥 Bussolo,导致世界银行报告的作者。

Bussolo added that by 2019, total investment share in developing countries will overtake the total investment by developed nations.(24)
Bussolo 补充说到 2019 年,在发展中国家中的总投资份额将超过发达国家的总投资。

“This is happening even though we foresee the investment rates coming down across all the regions.(25)

This is because growth will decelerate from [a] very high level and there will be a lot of churning within countries where investment will shift toward service sectors from agricultural and manufacturing.”(26)
这是因为增长将减速从 [a] 非常高的水平,会有大量的国家投资农业和制造业从哪里转往服务部门内翻腾。

The report also says that “unlike in the past, developing countries will likely have the resources needed to finance massive future investments for infrastructure and services, including education and health care.”(27)

Education is described as the best opportunity for policymakers to increase the earning capacity of its poor citizens.(28)

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