How will Yellen's interest in the 'human face' of economics influence policy?
2014-01-07 21:29:00

JUDY WOODRUFF: The high rate of unemployment is one of many challenges that the new chair of the Federal Reserve will face when she takes over next month.(1)
JUDY WOODRUFF:率高是失业率的联邦储备委员会新主席时她接管下个月将面对的众多挑战之一。

Janet Yellen, the first woman to head the Central Bank, was confirmed by the Senate last night. She has already made it clear that joblessness is one of her main concerns.(2)
参议院昨晚证实了 Janet Yellen,头,中央银行第一位。她已清除失业是她的主要关切之一。

We take a closer look at how she may change things as she tries to navigate some tricky terrain.(3)

Michael Hirsh has written about the Yellen agenda for National Journal, and Gillian Tett writes on these matters for The Financial Times.(4)
为国家杂志关于 Yellen 议程写了迈克尔 · 赫和邰为金融时报 》 写在这些事项上。

And welcome to you both.(5)

So, Michael Hirsh, to you first. As we just said, Janet Yellen has made it clear she worries a lot about unemployment.(6)
这样,迈克尔独处的休息,给你第一次。我们刚才说过,Janet Yellen 已明确她很担心失业。

What more do you expect -- do we expect her to do as chairman of the Fed about that?(7)
还有什么期望 — — 我们期待她的美联储主席这么做?

MICHAEL HIRSH, National Journal: Well, I think that the main thing is this has been the grand passion of her life and her career as an economist, if you look at what she has written.(8)
MICHAEL HIRSH, National Journal:嗯,我觉得最主要的是这一直是她的生活和她的职业生涯作为一个经济学家的盛大激情是否你看看她写了什么。

She comes out of a very activist tradition, the Keynesian tradition of economic thinking that is quite distinctive, I think, from the previous two Fed chairmen,(9)

Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, both of whom were conservative economists.(10)
艾伦 · 格林斯潘和伯南克 (Ben Bernanke,两人都是保守的经济学家。

And I think that, based on her writings and some of the things she said in her speeches going back more than a decade,(11)

we can expect to see her focus on the employment issue in a way that I don't think we have seen a Federal Reserve chairman do for a while.(12)

JUDY WOODRUFF: And she's in a position to make a difference?(13)
JUDY WOODRUFF:和她处于一个位置,使有区别吗?

MICHAEL HIRSH: The important thing about Federal Reserve chairpeople -- I guess we have to use that term now -- is they have an influence that goes way beyond the specific mandate of the Fed monetary policy.(14)
MICHAEL HIRSH:关于美联储 chairpeople — — 我想我们要用这个词现在 — — 重要的是他们有超越的美联储货币政策的具体任务范围的影响力。

Their economic thinking is enormously influential, not just in Washington, but around the world.(15)

This is the most important economic job in the world and it's said to be the second most important job in Washington, after the president.(16)

So I think her four-year term, during that time, we're going to see a lot of testimony, a lot of discussions with Congress that are going to shape perhaps some new thinking on unemployment.(17)

JUDY WOODRUFF: So, Gillian Tett, at the same time she has expressed a lot of worry about joblessness,(18)
JUDY WOODRUFF:所以,邰,同时她表示很多担心失业,

she is also under pressure to wind down the stimulus program that the Federal Reserve has been engaged in, the bond asset buying, so-called quantitative easing.(19)

How much tension is there between those two goals?(20)

GILLIAN TETT, The Financial Times: Well, the reality is, there's rising tension right now.(21)
GILLIAN TETT, The Financial Times:很好,现实是,那里现在的紧张局势加剧。

And you can see that in terms of the people sitting around the table with her on the Federal Reserve Committee,(22)

because opinions are increasingly divided about just how quickly the Fed should change course or not.(23)

But the key thing to understand about Janet Yellen, as Michael said, is that she's not just the first woman to hold this post, which is remarkable, but she's one of the first Keynesians to actually hold that post.(24)
但最重要的一点,以了解有关 Janet Yellen,正如迈克尔说,是她不是只是第一位担任这一职务是卓越,但她是第一个凯恩斯主义者,实际担任这一职务之一。

She is someone who really cares a lot about the human face of economics.(25)

And as she herself has said many times, for her, unemployment is not just had a bunch of statistics. It's also very much about human lives.(26)

So, for that reason alone, we certainly can expect her to see -- to take a much softer policy line than some of her predecessors.(27)
所以,那一个人的原因,我们当然可以期望她看到 — — 采取政策线比一些她的前辈多更柔和。

JUDY WOODRUFF: So, Gillian Tett, staying with you, what does that mean we could look for her to do?(28)
JUDY WOODRUFF:那么,邰,和你在一起,这意味着我们可以找她做什么呢?

GILLIAN TETT: Well, I think the important thing is what she is not going to do.(29)
GILLIAN TETT:嗯,我认为重要的是她不想做。

And I think what she is not going to do is withdraw the stimulus the Fed has put into the economy in the last couple of years in a very rapid manner.(30)

She is someone who is really looking for a gentle exit strategy that ensures that, although the Fed doesn't fuel the bubble anymore that we have seen in bond prices,(31)

that at least it tries to maintain the stimulus and keep the economic machine going.(32)

JUDY WOODRUFF: And, Michael Hirsh, in connection with all of this, you wrote recently -- and this picks up what you -- what you said -- on what you said a few minutes ago -- that she,(33)
JUDY WOODRUFF:迈克尔 · 赫,就所有这一切你最近写了 — — 和这捡起什么你 — — 你说的--就你所说的在几分钟前 — — 她,

for a long time, has advocated a higher minimum wage.(34)

Is she in a position to do something about that?(35)

MICHAEL HIRSH: Not specifically. In other words, she -- again, the Fed's mandate doesn't allow her to shape legislation specifically,(36)
MICHAEL HIRSH:不具体。换句话说,她 — — 再次,美联储的任务也不允许她具体来说,形状的立法

and she's going to be a little bit wary of getting into Congress' business,(37)

because there's been some backlash against some of these Fed policies, one of the reasons that her confirmation vote was as close as it was.(38)

But I do think that she will have a lot of influence in terms of the kinds of things she says in her biannual -- or semi-annual, rather, congressional testimony,(39)
但我觉得她会有很大的影响力的东西她说在她半年 — — 或半年一次,而是,在美国国会作证

in the kinds of things that she says in speeches, in the same way that Alan Greenspan, over his 18 years at the Fed, and Ben Bernanke, during his two terms,(40)
在她说在讲话,在同一个方式,艾伦 · 格林斯潘在美联储和本 · 伯南克,他 18 年的东西种类

really influenced economic thinking about the response to the crisis and the period before the crisis.(41)

JUDY WOODRUFF: And, Gillian Tett, this is something I know you have written about, about how the -- about how important the communication skills of the Federal Reserve chair can be.(42)
JUDY WOODRUFF:这是邰,这是什么我知道你有写关于如何使用--关于美联储主席的沟通技巧可以是多么的重要。

How do you see that in connection with Janet Yellen?(43)
你如何看待,与 Janet Yellen?

GILLIAN TETT: Well, Janet Yellen is somebody who even two years ago was pointing out that the Fed has already engaged in such extreme monetary policy measures that,(44)
GILLIAN TETT:嗯,Janet Yellen 是美联储已经已经从事这种极端的货币政策措施,指出甚至两年前的人

frankly, there's not a lot more they can do in terms of actually putting money into the economy.(45)

Instead, they're increasingly trying to shape how the economy works and how we all expect the economy to work by talking about the future and by trying to persuade people that they're going to take a very easy start for a long time.(46)

Now, that's incredibly controversial. Some people think this policy, which is called forward guidance, really is just a bunch of voodoo.(47)

But, certainly, it means that people are going to be watching what Janet Yellen says very, very carefully indeed, because she is not just describing what is happening.(48)
但是,当然,这意味着人们将要看 Janet Yellen 非常、 非常认真地的确,说: 因为她不只描述发生了什么。

She is also describing how she hopes to see the economy going forward in the future.(49)

JUDY WOODRUFF: Is that something that you expect her to do? What do you see?(50)
JUDY WOODRUFF:这样你还指望她要做的东西吗?你看到了什么?

MICHAEL HIRSH: Very much so. I think the most distinctive thing about Janet Yellen, other than the fact that she is the first woman to lead the Fed, is the breadth of her economic thinking.(51)
MICHAEL HIRSH:真的很像。事实上她是第一位领导美联储,Janet Yellen 中最具特色的事情是她经济思维的广度。

Bernanke's focus as a scholar was on the Great Depression. Alan Greenspan was very famously a financial economist.(52)
作为一名学者伯南克的重点是大萧条。艾伦 · 格林斯潘很有名是金融经济学家。

She is someone who has studied the whole economy and again in a very Keynesian way. She comes out of this activist school at Yale.(53)

She studied under James Tobin, who was renowned for his belief in government intervention.(54)
她师从詹姆斯 · 托宾,是他的信仰在政府的干预而闻名。

So, I think you are going to see that reflected in every policy decision she makes. And, as Gillian says, first things first.(55)

She is going to have to decide on when to sort of taper back the Fed intervention, which is she is going to inclined to do that less than more.(56)

JUDY WOODRUFF: And I was going to say, I think you have also written you expect her to be tougher in terms of regulating -- regulating Wall Street.(57)
JUDY WOODRUFF:我本来想说,我觉得你也写你还指望她要更严格的规管 — — 调节华尔街。

MICHAEL HIRSH: Yes, that's another -- already, she has gotten into turf battles with Dan Tarullo, the Fed governor there, who Bernanke sort of left it to do this.(58)
MICHAEL HIRSH:是的这已经是另一个 — —,她已经到草皮争斗与丹塔鲁洛,美联储总督那里,伯南克的离开它这样做的人。

She sees that as her agenda, something that she wants to take on personally as Fed chairwoman.(59)

So, I think you are going to see her taking a much more prominent role, perhaps even getting into a fight or two with the Treasury Department.(60)

JUDY WOODRUFF: How do you see that, Gillian?(61)

And I do want to ask about the fact that she is the first woman and how that could affect, if in any way, what she does.(62)

GILLIAN TETT: Well, before I get on the women issue, I just want to point one thing out, which is that she has broad experience.(63)
GILLIAN TETT:嗯,关于妇女问题之前,我只想指出一件事出来,就是她有广泛的经验。

The one bit of experience she has not got is direct market experience, and her focus is rather different from her predecessors.(64)

She's actually not that focused on the way that market behaves. She cares far more about the real economy, the human face of the economy.(65)

And that could bring quite a different tone to the kind of policy debate from what we have seen before.(66)

Does that have any tie-in with the fact she is a woman? Well, it's very hard to say. I think, however, she does take a much more holistic view about how economic processes work.(67)

And perhaps one of the most interesting things of all is that being the first woman to hold this position, suddenly an entire generation of young female economists can look up and think, wow, maybe that's possible.(68)

And that helps to reshape expectations in many ways. It helps, if you like, carve a whole new face, a new stamp on what economics is about.(69)

And actually it may help to encourage more women into the field as well going forward.(70)

JUDY WOODRUFF: Why have there been so few women, do you think? I'm asking Michael this, but I want to get Gillian's...(71)
JUDY WOODRUFF:为何会有那么几个妇女,你觉得呢?我问迈克尔这一点,但我想让阿娇的......

JUDY WOODRUFF: Just quickly, because do you think this can make a difference?(72)
JUDY WOODRUFF:只是很快,因为你觉得这能有所作为吗?

MICHAEL HIRSH: Oh, absolutely. I also would note, and I don't think it's just a coincidence, that going back to Brooksley Born, who was the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in the late 1990s,(73)
MICHAEL HIRSH:哦,绝对。我还会注意到,而且我不认为它只是一个巧合,那回布鲁克斯出生,在 90 年代后期是商品期货交易委员会的负责人,

tried to take on the issue of over-the-counter derivatives way before the crisis happened, and was slapped down by the men in charge,(74)

we have seen women -- Sheila Bair of the FDIC -- come along and really take on Wall Street in a way that frankly not that many men have.(75)
我们已看到妇女 — — Sheila Bair 联邦存款保险公司 — — 来一直和真的采取在华尔街上坦率地说不是很多男人有的方式。

Gary Gensler is one of the few exceptions. So, it's interesting to see her at the tail end of this.(76)
Gary Gensler 是少数例外之一。所以,有趣的是见到她在这尾结束。

And she represents also what someone described to me as someone who is truly not captured by Wall Street. She has not worked in there. And in some ways, that's a strength.(77)

And in that way, like Brooksley Born, like some of these other women who have not been part of the Wall Street mind-set,(78)

she can stand back and look at it in a very different way than we have seen by some of those inside the power structure in Washington who have previously worked for Wall Street.(79)

JUDY WOODRUFF: So, Gillian, in just a few seconds, what do you look for?(80)
JUDY WOODRUFF:所以,阿娇,只需几秒钟,你喜欢什么样?

GILLIAN TETT: Well, I'm looking for her to certainly provide a new face of economics.(81)
GILLIAN TETT:嗯,我在找她,当然会提供经济学的一个新面孔。

And there's a great study by Stanford University which shows that when you have a female economic professor in the department, you get a lot more women doing Ph. D. s in economics.(82)
并有很大的研究,由斯坦福大学的演示当你有一个女性经济教授在部,你获取更多的妇女在做经济学博士 s。

So, the fact she is there could certainly help to change the course of economics in the next generation.(83)

JUDY WOODRUFF: And those women can go on to become policy-makers.(84)
JUDY WOODRUFF:这些妇女可以成为决策者。

GILLIAN TETT: Well, let's see. At the moment, there's only 10 percent of the world central bank governors are women, so there's a lot of ground to catch up.(85)
GILLIAN TETT:让我看看。目前,是只有 10%的世界中央银行行长是妇女,所以有很多地面赶上来。

But, certainly, it's a very interesting appointment.(86)

JUDY WOODRUFF: Gillian Tett, Michael Hirsh, we thank you both.(87)
JUDY WOODRUFF:邰、 迈克尔 · 独处的休息,我们感谢你这两个。

GILLIAN TETT: Thank you.(88)

MICHAEL HIRSH: Thank you.(89)

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