Are Russia’s military priorities in Syria cause for concern?
2015-09-30 22:40:41

JUDY WOODRUFF: Late this evening, Secretary Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov came out together and agreed to military talks.(1)
JUDY WOODRUFF:这晚,国务卿克里和俄罗斯外交部长拉夫罗夫一起出来,同意军事会谈。

We get a closer Russian — look at Russia’s military moves in Syria with Andrew Weiss.(2)
我们靠近俄罗斯 — — 看看俄罗斯的军队进入叙利亚与安德鲁 · 维斯。

He was the director of Russian, Ukrainian, and Eurasian affairs at the White House National Security Council during the Clinton and George H.W. Bush administrations.(3)
他是俄罗斯、 乌克兰和欧亚事务在白宫国家安全委员会主任乔治 H.W.布什和克林顿执政时期。

He’s now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. And Steven Simon, he’s a visiting lecturer at Dartmouth College.(4)
他现在是卡内基国际和平基金。Steven Simon,他是达特茅斯学院客座讲师。

He served on the National Security Council staff during the Obama and Clinton administrations.(5)

And we welcome you both back to the program.(6)

Let me start with you, Steven Simon.(7)
让我从你开始,Steven Simon。

Is this an occasion for the U.S. to be pleased that it has a partner in going after ISIS or alarmed that the Russians are in Syria helping their friend President Assad?(8)

STEVEN SIMON, Dartmouth College: I think, on balance, there’s cause for some satisfaction and the presence now in Syria of a powerful military player with a serious strategic stake in defeating ISIS.(9)
STEVEN SIMON, Dartmouth College:我想,总的来说,还有一些满足和击败伊希斯的严重战略入股与现在在叙利亚的一个强大的军事球员存在的原因。

It’s really the only, I would say, tacit partner. It’s certainly not an explicit or de jure partner of the United States in this battle against ISIS.(10)
它是真正的唯一,我会说,默契的合作伙伴。当然,这不是显式或德法律上美国伙伴在 ISIS 对抗的问题。

So, at least the United States has a partner, even if it’s not official.(11)

On the other hand, it does mean that there is a serious friend of the Assad regime also present in Syria,(12)

and this is undoubtedly a cause for concern for the administration.(13)

JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, let me turn to you, Andrew Weiss.(14)
JUDY WOODRUFF:好吧,让我转交给你,安德鲁 · 维斯。

More cause for concern or a cause for some satisfaction?(15)

ANDREW WEISS, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: I think the cause for concern here is that Russia is plunging headlong into a military adventure in a part of the world where it’s been absent for the better part of the last two decades.(16)
ANDREW WEISS, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace:我认为原因在这里关注的是俄罗斯一头栽到在哪里一直缺席的世界的一部分的军事冒险为了更美好的过去二十年。

So, I defer to my friend Steve Simon about the impact on the ground.(17)
所以,我听从了我的朋友 Steve Simon 对地面的影响。

It certainly looks like this is a big shot in the arm for Bashar al-Assad.(18)
看起来,这是为巴沙尔 · 阿萨德的手臂的大人物。

The question is, have the Russians thought two or three moves ahead?(19)

This to me looks suspiciously like what happened in Ukraine,(20)

where what seemed like a good idea, a very pressurized decision by the Russians to unleash aggression against Ukraine, has backfired quite badly.(21)

And so when I hear Secretary of Defense Carter today saying that he thinks this is ultimately going to basically be something that is doomed to fail or that is going to hurt Russia, I have very little reason to doubt that.(22)

JUDY WOODRUFF: What do you mean? Come back to you, Andrew Weiss. What do you mean it looks like what happened in Ukraine?(23)
JUDY WOODRUFF:你是什么意思?回到你,安德鲁 · 维斯。它看起来像什么发生在乌克兰是什么意思?

ANDREW WEISS: Well, people like to talk Vladimir Putin as if he is this great master strategist.(24)
ANDREW WEISS:嗯,人喜欢谈 Vladimir 普京,仿佛他是这位伟大的大师战略家。

In fact, what he is someone who is fairly impulsive. And so the intervention in Ukraine was done very spur of the moment.(25)

And now what we’re seeing — and we have had about three weeks or so of a steady drip of Russian military buildup in and around the Western Mediterranean coast of Syria,(26)
我们现在所看到 — — 我们有大约三个星期左右的不断滴下的俄罗斯军力和周围西地中海叙利亚海岸,

and now he’s plunging into a military adventure.(27)

There’s no domestic Russian political support for foreign military activity of this type.(28)

And I think there’s a real question, which is, he is basically now putting a target on the back of every Russian soldier and many Russian civilians, including inside Russia itself.(29)

So, he’s creating a recruitment boon, I think, for the global local jihadist movement,(30)

and he’s putting Russia at the center of that, as opposed to the United States or other Western partners.(31)

JUDY WOODRUFF: Steven Simon, why was it so difficult today to figure out who the Russians were targeting?(32)
JUDY WOODRUFF:Steven Simon,为什么是它太难今天找出俄国人,目标谁?

STEVEN SIMON: Because the situation on the ground is, in fact, confused, and there is no geolocation of the attacks that are publicly available yet.(33)
STEVEN SIMON:因为在地面上的情况,事实上,困惑,而且还有没有地理位置尚可公开获得的袭击。

The information available to me is that they struck targets affiliated with al-Nusra, which is another Islamist group.(34)
我所获得的信息是他们达成目标与 al-说不,这是另一个伊斯兰组织有联系。

But, as a practical matter, the first priority for the Russians right now is protection of the regime and the survival of the regime and its viability.(35)

So, they’re going to attack the targets that they and the regime have decided are most threatening to the regime right now,(36)

and then move on to targets that are less immediately threatening.(37)

So, whoever was knocking at the gate right now was going to get the first Russian blow.(38)

The other thing, of course, is that the Syrians will be encouraging the Russians to be attacking ISIS targets the United States has thus far refrained from attacking because they’re politically sensitive.(39)
其他的东西,当然,是叙利亚人将鼓励俄国人会攻击美国迄今克制攻击,因为他们在政治上敏感的 ISIS 目标。

If there’s a target that looks as though its destruction would be mostly of benefit to the regime, rather than to the Syrian people at large,(40)

then the United States will save its ammunition, keep its powder dry, and strike other targets that are less ambiguous, if I can put it that way.(41)
然后美国将保存其弹药、 保持其粉干燥,和打击其他不太含糊不清的如果我可以把它放那种方式的目标。

So, that would be — that will be the Soviet — the Russian priorities.(42)
那么,就是 — — 这将是苏联 — — 俄罗斯的优先事项。

JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, Andrew Weiss, for any American or anybody listening to this,(43)
JUDY WOODRUFF:嗯,安德鲁 · 韦斯,任何美国或任何人听这,

it sounds like a very confusing situation to keep track of who is up and who is down and who is being targeted.(44)

I mean, how should we — how should Americans view this?(45)
我的意思是,我们应该怎样 — — 美国人应该如何看待这?

Do we wait and withhold judgment until we see what the Russians do over the next few days?(46)

ANDREW WEISS: Well, I think President Obama’s been quite reluctant to get the U.S. more involved militarily, and that’s been going on for some time now.(47)
ANDREW WEISS:嗯,我觉得主席奧巴馬一直非常不愿意让更多涉及到军事上,美国和一些时间现在发生了。

So, I think the idea that the U.S. is either going to stand up to the Russians and tell them to knock it off, all that, I think is misplaced.(48)

The real question, I think, for us, as the U.S. and other Western partners in the fight —(49)
真正的问题,我认为,对我们来说,作为美国和其他西方伙伴在斗争中的 — —

and the regional partners in the fight against ISIS, is whether we’re going to bump into the Russians in some sort.(50)

And the Russians up to now had talked a good game, saying, oh, we want our militaries talking, this is really important.(51)

But they have plunged ahead without getting that coordination mechanism locked in,(52)

and I think there’s a real risk here that the Russians, who don’t have the same level of experience,(53)

don’t have the same kind of intelligence backbone to support their operations, could be doing things that are either dangerous or that put Western pilots and others at risk.(54)

JUDY WOODRUFF: Steve Simon, why isn’t that a big worry?(55)
JUDY WOODRUFF:Steve Simon,那为什么不是一大忧虑吗?

I mean, there was a sense that we were led to believe ahead of time the Russians were going to give the West, the U.S.-led coalition, more advanced notice.(56)

It sounds like they barely had an hour’s word ahead of time.(57)

STEVEN SIMON: Yes, I think it is problematic.(58)
STEVEN SIMON:是的我认为是有问题的。

And we have got to get those mil-mil talks going and there needs to be better coordination.(59)
我们得把那些 mil mil 谈判和需要有更好的协调。

But, as a practical matter, the Russians are going to be striking in sectors of Syrian territory and Syrian airspace that lie outside of the areas that the United States has focused on,(60)

which are mainly targets that are close to the Turkish border in the north.(61)

So, as a practical matter, I think the risk of a collision are low.(62)

JUDY WOODRUFF: Let me just quickly conclude asking you both,(63)
JUDY WOODRUFF:最后,我只是快速地问你两个,

what are you looking for in the next few days to tell you whether this is a positive development or not?(64)

Andrew Weiss?(65)
安德鲁 · 魏斯吗?

ANDREW WEISS: I think the immediate question is how the Russian people will react.(66)
ANDREW WEISS:我觉得眼前的问题是,俄罗斯人会如何反应。

I have no doubt that there’s great sense of celebration inside Assad’s inner circle, and frankly in Tehran,(67)

but I don’t think the Russian people were prepared for any of this.(68)

This has all been thrown at them with maybe two or three weeks’ notice.(69)

It plays to Putin’s domestic agenda, which is to say Russia is a big, great power,(70)

it can thrust itself into the international stage at its own — a time of its own liking and a place of its choosing,(71)
它可以推力本身成了自己在国际舞台 — — 时间的它自己的喜好和其选择的地方

but there’s no one I think at home who is really enthusiastic about this whole activity.(72)

JUDY WOODRUFF: All right, we are going to have to leave it there.(73)
JUDY WOODRUFF:好吧,我们要离开这里。

Andrew Weiss, Steven Simon, thank you both.(74)
安德鲁 · 韦斯,Steven Simon,谢谢你们俩。

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